Medium-term outlook for EUR/USD




For the trend trader, a medium-term outlook on the currency pair to be negotiated is important. With the help of fundamental data from both currency areas, it tries to take a look at the future development. This is crucial in which direction trades are opened, how much capital is used and where stop loss brands are to be set.


The euro continued its upward trend during the last trading days. This movement last led him over the mark of 1.38. This brand proved to be a clear hurdle. Prices went into the downward phase. Analysts had predicted another development. Expectations were placed on the ECB’s statements, but these did not bring any new findings. But everyone agreed that the euro was overvalued.


The current state of affairs at EUR/USD
It is time for the euro to regain its overbuying mode. At the moment, however, expert is a scenario that favours a neutral stance in the EUR/USD parity. Trend signals are not yet pronounced. But a counter-movement is long overdue. The euro has fallen slightly but still moves at a very high level.


In view of the economic phase, the United States is significantly farther than the euro area. There is a lot of talk about the state of the crisis in the euro countries. Economic data are rising in both areas but in the US there is more serious progress. The United States is also a homogeneous economic area. The eurozone countries are not in agreement on important decisions. As far as the ECB’s action is concerned, the peripheral countries have a different opinion than in the core countries. This can lead to unexpected decisions by the ECB on the key interest rate, interest on deposits and bond purchases. The conclusion is that the crisis has not yet been overcome. The US has the recession behind it.




Key indicators
It is important for the Forex trader to pay attention to economic data. Indicators such as consumer confidence, unemployment trends, economic investment forecasts and inflation data must not be left out of sight. Political trends are to be observed. In the United States, the development of the budgetary dispute and the euro area cannot be overlooked by both ‘ camps ‘. The development of national debt must be observed in both currency areas. In particular, the prospect of a reduction in the United States ‘ tapering of money will give the dollar a boost.


Chart analysis can help
Experienced traders always broaden their horizons before they make decisions in the direction of chart analysis. Different methods are used. The purpose of the chart analysis is to derive the development for the future from the historical chart development. This is to generate trading signals.


Price movements often run according to a similar scheme. Patterns are to be identified and trends to be recognized. It is particularly important to find supports (in the area of high) and resistors (in the range of high prices), as the trends here often turn. One Direction seems to be clear at the moment. What is important for the investment decision is when the new trend begins and how strong it will be.